As the dust settles, the NFL playoff bracket for January 2026 presents a landscape few pundits could have predicted last August.
This time, upsets are happening left and right. Favorites like the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, and Detroit Lions are all watching from home—a new guard has seized the spotlight.
From a revitalized Mile High City to the resurgence of a dynasty in Foxborough, the 2026 playoff picture is a testament to the league’s parity and the rapid impact of strategic coaching hires. Here are the surging teams against expectations as we head into Wild Card Weekend.
The AFC’s New Peak: The Denver Broncos (No. 1 Seed)
Perhaps the most stunning turnaround of the decade belongs to the Denver Broncos. After years of hovering in post-Manning mediocrity, Sean Payton has finally engineered the offensive machine he was brought to Colorado to build. Securing the AFC’s lone first-round bye with a 13–4 record, the Broncos enter the postseason not just as a “nice story,” but as the team to beat—an outlook reflected in FanDuel odds that position Denver among the clear favorites to reach the Super Bowl.
The Return of the Patriot Way (No. 2 Seed)
If Denver was a surprise, the New England Patriots finishing as the No. 2 seed is a revelation. Under the leadership of Mike Vrabel—hired to restore the franchise’s legendary toughness—the Patriots have climbed out of the AFC East cellar to a 13-4 finish.
The 2025 season saw the rapid ascension of quarterback Drake Maye, who, bolstered by a retooled offensive line and the addition of explosive playmakers like TreVeyon Henderson, has exorcised the ghosts of the post-Brady era. Their defense remains a “bend-but-don’t-break” masterclass, finishing the season with a dominant win over the Dolphins to secure a home game against the Chargers.
The NFC’s West Coast Dominance
While the AFC features new faces, the NFC is a story of division rivals reaching their final forms. Years of familiarity have sharpened these matchups into chess matches, where coaching adjustments and late-game execution often matter more than raw talent.
Seattle’s “Mac” Attack (No. 1 Seed)
The Seattle Seahawks (14-3) secured the NFC’s top seed behind Mike Macdonald’s No. 1 ranked scoring defense. The Seahawks have been a juggernaut, allowing a meager 13 combined points over their final two games against the 49ers and Rams. On the other side of the ball, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has evolved into the league’s most dangerous receiving threat, leading the NFL in yards and providing Sam Darnold with a reliable safety valve.
The Monsters of the Midway Return (No. 2 Seed)
The Chicago Bears (11-6) are officially back. After years of rebuilding, the vision of Ben Johnson and the talent of Caleb Williams have coalesced into an NFC North title. Williams finished his second campaign with over 3,400 yards and 22 touchdowns, showing a level of poise that suggests the bright lights of January won’t be too big for him.
The Wild Cards and Underdogs
The 2026 bracket is rounded out by teams that fought through adversity to claim their seats at the table, a journey that becomes even clearer when you dig into the Latest NFL Matchup Reviews that highlight how narrow margins and late-season adjustments defined their path.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 3 Seed): Under Liam Coen, the Jaguars transformed into a high-octane weapon, clinching the AFC South with 13 wins.7 They face a dangerous Buffalo Bills team led by reigning MVP Josh Allen in what many consider the game of the week.
- Carolina Panthers (No. 4 Seed): The Panthers represent the most controversial entry, winning the NFC South with an 8-9 record.8 While critics argue they shouldn’t host a playoff game with a losing record, the Panthers’ defense has been “sneaky good” over the final month of the season.
Looking Ahead: A Wide-Open Field
The most fascinating aspect of the 2026 bracket is the lack of a “clear” favorite. While the Seahawks and Broncos hold the home-field advantage, the presence of veteran quarterbacks like Matthew Stafford (Rams) and Josh Allen (Bills) in the Wild Card round means no lead is safe.
As we move into the tournament, the “surging” teams will have to prove that their regular-season success wasn’t just a fluke, but the start of a new era in professional football. One thing is certain: in a year where the underdogs have already rewritten the script, expect the unexpected when the clock starts on Saturday.