Oscar Predictions 2020: Actor locks, heated writers, and the rise of a Parasite

The Academy Awards will be presented on Sunday February 9, 2020. It’s a doubly happy occasion as it is also my birthday. This year features numerous ‘locks’ in the acting fields, but the writing awards are up in the air. There is also a strong sweep factor stewing for one of the movies.

Many of you want to win your Oscar Pool and I love the Oscars. To that end, I’ve written annual Oscar articles every year for 25 years. During that time, my accuracy has been 85% overall and 95% for the top 8 categories. So, take my expert advice. Here is my list that will help you WIN. I’m giving you my 1st pick, 2nd pick, % chance of winning and brief commentary for some categories.

In terms of predictions, although there are front-runners, there are a few juicy areas for some potential upsets, which definitely makes your Oscar pools up for grabs. Given the above, this may be a great year to find one or two major upsets and several other open categories.

Remember folks, whomever the academy picks are only THEIR opinion of who is deserving of the Oscar.  It does not reflect what is best, nor what the whole world or what certain individual’s think is best. I’m talk to YOU as well, with your strong opinions “But I loved that movie so much!” There are only 7,000 academy members, they are becoming more diverse each year, but they often follow trends, so it’s important to know how they are feeling.  So here goes my picks:

BEST PICTURE:

1917 – 40%

Parasite – 35%

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – 25%

This is a very close race due to the ranked ballot system. I believe Parasite has a good chance to upset since many people may choose it as their second or third best movie and because it won the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) award for best ensemble. But given that 1917 has won the key pre-cursor awards — such as Producers Guild Award (PGA), Directors Guild Award (DGA) and Golden Globes (GG), and BAFTAs – it will be much harder to beat.

BEST DIRECTOR:

Sam Mendes, 1917 – 60%

Boon Jong Ho, Parasite – 30%

Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – 10%

While Mendes won the DGA, there is a strong tide to give Boon Jong Ho this one. If Ho wins this, the likelihood of a Best Picture is stronger.

BEST ACTOR:

Joaquin Phoenix, Joker – 99%

Adam Driver – 1%

Normally, I was willing to put 100% on sure thing locks like Phoenix, but after last year’s huge upset of ‘sure thing lock’ Glenn Close to Olivia Colman, you never know.  That said, Phoenix has won all the pre-cursor awards.

BEST ACTRESS:

Renee Zellweger, Judy – 99%

Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story – 1%

Zellweger has won every pre-cursor award.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – 99%

Joe Pesci, The Irishman – 1%

Pitt has won every pre-cursor award, he is in a category of Oscar winning legends who have all won acting awards, and he has such raw star power that voters want to see him win.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Laura Dern, Marriage Story – 95%

Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit – 3%

Margot Robbie, Bombshell – 2%

If any of the 4 “locks/sure things” are going to get upset, this is the place for it. Oscars loves a young ingenue who has never won before, so there is a chance one may pull it off. Johansson with her double nominations may benefit from this.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

Jojo Rabbit – 50%

Little Women – 40%

The Irishman – 10%

This highly contested race recently shifted when Jojo Rabbit won the Writers Guild Award (WGA). Oscar voters like to ‘spread the love’ so they will likely give Jojo it’s due and Little Women will get best costumes.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Parasite – 55%

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – 45%

This is an exciting and hotly contested one too. The WGA gave it to Parasite, so it has the edge. If Tarantino somehow wins his third writing Oscar, he will tie the only 3-time winner, Woody Allen. Maybe the academy voters want to avoid that awkward conversation.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:

Toy Story 4 – 60%

Klaus – 40%

Will Klaus upset juggernaut Pixar? Maybe.

BEST DOCUMENTARY:

American Factory – 65%

For Sama – 25%

Honeyland – 10%

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:

Joker – 70%

1917 – 30%

BEST SONG:

I’m Gonna Love Me Again, Rocketman – 85%

Stand Up, Harriet – 15%

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:

Parasite – 99%

Pain and Glory – 1%

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

1917 – 99%

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – 1%

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:

Little Women – 65%

JoJo Rabbit – 25%

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – 10%

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – 45%

Parasite – 35%

1917 – 20%

BEST FILM EDITING:

Parasite – 55%

Ford vs. Ferrari – 45%

What a close race!

BEST MAKEUP & HAIR:

Bombshell – 75%

Joker – 25%

Glam squad goals. 😉

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:

1917 – 65%

Avengers: Endgame – 30%

Lion King – 5%

Here’s hoping that Avengers: Endgame one of the greatest movie franchises of all-time and an incredibly great movie, snubbed for a Best Picture, gets at least one award with an upset.

BEST SOUND EDITING:

1917 – 60%

Ford vs. Ferrari – 40%

BEST SOUND MIXING:

1917 – 65%

Ford vs. Ferrari – 35%

BEST ANIMATED SHORT:

Hair Love – 60%

Kitbull – 35%

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT:

Brotherhood – 60%

The Neighbors Window – 40%

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:

Learning to Skate in a War Zone (If You’re a Girl) – 90%

St. Louis Superman – 10%

BEST DRESSED:

Charlize Theron, Scarlett Johansson, Margot Robbie, and Brad Pitt.

If you win your Oscar pool, I’ll happily accept tags and a 15% cut. 🙂

Please enjoy, share and tell us YOUR THOUGHTS & PICKS! Tag @SwaggerMag on IG or @SwaggerMagazine on Twitter or use the #SwaggerLife tag.

WINNERS:

6          1917
3          Parasite
2          Joker
2          Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2          Jojo Rabbit
1          Little Women
1          Marriage Story
1          Judy
1          Bombshell
1          Toy Story 4
1          Rocketman
0          Avengers: Endgame (so sad, but they could still surprise as a close second in one category, but the Best Picture nominee snub still hurts)

Total
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